Millwall 2-1 Portsmouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
61%
1.48
Over 2.5
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.15
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
17%
5.58
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.55
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.55
X/1
11%
4.87
X/2
14%
6.2
X/X
19%
3.61
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
12%
5.13
2/X
5%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-3.8pp
30%
Draw
31%
-0.4pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-2.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+2.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.1pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millwall EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Portsmouth EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -9%
1.24/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.61
-10% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +25%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
308 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 73%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
22.3 Crosses 23.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millwall
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Portsmouth
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.18 xG 1.08
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
229 Passes 297
66% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 1
28.01.2025 Portsmouth Portsmouth 0-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
13.08.2024 Portsmouth Portsmouth 0-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNLK
10.08.2021 Millwall Millwall 2-1 HT 2-1 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNLK
10.04.2012 Portsmouth Portsmouth 0-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
26.12.2011 Millwall Millwall 1-0 HT 0-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL
26.12.2010 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millwall
2-1
AWAY Portsmouth
1.30 xG 0.60
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 4
168 Passes 189
64% Pass Accuracy 64%
35 Box Touches 20
33 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Millwall vs Portsmouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall nicked a narrow win over Portsmouth 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 30% / 33% — and on the day Millwall made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Millwall had 49% of the ball to Portsmouth's 51%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.30 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millwall had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Millwall and 0.33 for Portsmouth.

What was the final score of Millwall vs Portsmouth?

Millwall 2-1 Portsmouth in the England - Championship on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millwall vs Portsmouth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millwall win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Millwall 37%, draw 30%, Portsmouth 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Millwall) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Millwall) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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