Portsmouth 0-1 Millwall — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 13 Aug 2024

Portsmouth
0-1 HT 0-1
Millwall
📅13/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - League Cup – 2024/2025

Portsmouth vs Millwall Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.8
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
34%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.13
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.74
6+ Goals
9%
15.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 29% vs market 26.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.48
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
7%
13.3
X/1
12%
6.23
X/2
13%
4.93
X/X
14%
4.42
2/1
9%
33.5
2/2
13%
3.22
2/X
9%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+4.6pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.6pp
34%
Away Win
41%
-7.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.9pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Portsmouth v Millwall — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portsmouth EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Millwall EU Bookmakers 45%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
1.07/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.65/0.15
-6% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +129% / +150%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
263 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 70%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Portsmouth vs Millwall Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portsmouth
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Millwall
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.95 xG 1.80
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
266 Passes 400
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
10.08.2021 Millwall Millwall 2-1 HT 2-1 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNLK
10.04.2012 Portsmouth Portsmouth 0-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
26.12.2011 Millwall Millwall 1-0 HT 0-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL
26.12.2010 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
19.10.2010 Millwall Millwall 0-1 HT 0-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL
01.03.2003 Millwall Millwall 0-5 HT 0-4 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL

Portsmouth 0-1 Millwall — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portsmouth
0-1
AWAY Millwall
1.11 xG 0.43
64% Ball Possession 36%
10 Total Shots 8
0 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 4
360 Passes 165
78% Pass Accuracy 64%
14 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Portsmouth vs Millwall
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall edged past Portsmouth 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 34%) promised a tight game; Millwall found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Portsmouth had 64% of the ball to Millwall's 36%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 1.11 to 0.43 — on chances, Portsmouth could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millwall led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Portsmouth and 0.83 for Millwall.

What was the final score of Portsmouth vs Millwall?

Portsmouth 0-1 Millwall in the England - League Cup on 13/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portsmouth vs Millwall?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portsmouth win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Portsmouth 37%, draw 30%, Millwall 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Portsmouth) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Portsmouth) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNLK More England - League Cup
13 Aug 2024
21:30 Carlisle United vs Stoke City Analysis →
21:30 Stockport County vs Blackburn Rovers Analysis →
21:30 Leyton Orient vs Newport County Analysis →
21:45 Crawley Town vs Swindon Town Analysis →
21:45 Bolton Wanderers vs Mansfield Town Analysis →
21:45 Norwich City vs Stevenage Analysis →