Carlisle United 0-2 Stoke City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 13 Aug 2024

📅13/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.04
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
46%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.83
2-3 Goals
43%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.2
6+ Goals
10%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 24% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
7.16
1/2
8%
22.7
1/X
8%
14.45
X/1
11%
9.65
X/2
15%
4.17
X/X
12%
5.15
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.2
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
22%
+6.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
46%
Away Win
54%
-7.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Stoke City EU Bookmakers 57%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.05/2.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.35/0.49
+11% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -83% / +74%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
211 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.8
Crosses 26.5
Yellow Cards 0.6
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
0-2
AWAY Stoke City
1.25 xG 1.41
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
232 Passes 470
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 12
POST-MATCH Carlisle United vs Stoke City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stoke City beat Carlisle United 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Stoke City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Carlisle United had 37% of the ball to Stoke City's 63%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.25 to 1.41.

What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Stoke City?

Carlisle United 0-2 Stoke City in the England - League Cup on 13/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Stoke City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Stoke City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 28%, draw 26%, Stoke City 46%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stoke City) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Stoke City) ✗ BTTS Yes
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