Leyton Orient 4-1 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 13 Aug 2024

Leyton Orient
4-1 HT 2-0
Newport County
📅13/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - League Cup – 2024/2025

Leyton Orient vs Newport County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.3
Draw
24%
4.81
Away
23%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.21
Over 2.5
57%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
2.03
No
45%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.41
2-3 Goals
37%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.94
6+ Goals
16%
8.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.51
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
22.7
X/1
19%
3.41
X/2
9%
19.9
X/X
8%
7.46
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.6
2/2
8%
16.1
2/X
9%
23.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
72%
-19.4pp
24%
Draw
17%
+6.5pp
23%
Away Win
10%
+12.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
45%
+9.6pp
45%
BTTS No
55%
-9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leyton Orient v Newport County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leyton Orient EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +62% / +11%
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
447 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 220 · 68%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
– Crosses 9.8
– Yellow Cards 2.8

Leyton Orient vs Newport County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leyton Orient
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Newport County
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.15 xG 0.96
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
285 Passes 233
68% Pass Accuracy 62%
22 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.12.2022 Newport County Newport County 0-0 HT 0-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN2
01.10.2022 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 1-2 HT 0-2 Newport County Newport County İN2
25.01.2022 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 0-1 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
04.09.2021 Newport County Newport County 2-2 HT 1-1 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN2
20.03.2021 Newport County Newport County 0-1 HT 0-0 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient İN2
12.12.2020 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 2-1 HT 0-1 Newport County Newport County İN2

Leyton Orient 4-1 Newport County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leyton Orient
4-1
AWAY Newport County
1.16 xG 0.36
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
364 Passes 380
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 8
11 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Leyton Orient vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leyton Orient ran out comfortable winners over Newport County 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Leyton Orient as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Leyton Orient had 49% of the ball to Newport County's 51%, shots finished 10-5, expected goals 1.16 to 0.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Leyton Orient and 1.00 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Leyton Orient vs Newport County?

Leyton Orient 4-1 Newport County in the England - League Cup on 13/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leyton Orient vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leyton Orient win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Leyton Orient 53%, draw 24%, Newport County 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leyton Orient), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Leyton Orient) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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