Crawley Town 4-2 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 13 Aug 2024

📅13/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.23
Over 2.5
48%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.5
No
52%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.68
2-3 Goals
38%
1.91
4-5 Goals
23%
2.85
6+ Goals
11%
7.97
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.68 — our 28% vs market 16.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.03
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
5%
12.2
X/1
14%
5.32
X/2
9%
6.65
X/X
10%
5.31
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
21%
4.13
2/X
10%
12.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
62%
-14.1pp
52%
BTTS No
38%
+14.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 36%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.69/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.01
+52% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -92% / +29%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
324 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 74%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
20.0 Crosses 13.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crawley Town
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Swindon Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.77 xG 1.74
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
239 Passes 389
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.01.2024 Crawley Town Crawley Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
26.08.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 6-0 HT 1-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
08.05.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-1 HT 2-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
03.12.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
19.03.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 3-1 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
01.02.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crawley Town
4-2
AWAY Swindon Town
0.57 xG 2.31
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
571 Passes 291
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 24
1 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Crawley Town vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crawley Town beat Swindon Town 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 36%) promised a tight game; Crawley Town found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Crawley Town had 63% of the ball to Swindon Town's 37%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 0.57 to 2.31 — on chances, Swindon Town could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crawley Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Crawley Town and 1.83 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Crawley Town vs Swindon Town?

Crawley Town 4-2 Swindon Town in the England - League Cup on 13/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crawley Town vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crawley Town win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Crawley Town 39%, draw 24%, Swindon Town 36%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crawley Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Crawley Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNLK More England - League Cup
13 Aug 2024
21:30 Carlisle United vs Stoke City Analysis →
21:30 Stockport County vs Blackburn Rovers Analysis →
21:30 Leyton Orient vs Newport County Analysis →
21:45 Bolton Wanderers vs Mansfield Town Analysis →
21:45 Norwich City vs Stevenage Analysis →
21:45 Tranmere Rovers vs Accrington Stanley Analysis →