Crawley Town 3-1 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 1 Jan 2024

📅01/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.43
Over 2.5
52%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.49
No
47%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.8
2-3 Goals
37%
1.91
4-5 Goals
25%
2.75
6+ Goals
12%
7.37
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.0
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.35
X/1
14%
5.29
X/2
11%
6.51
X/X
14%
5.48
2/1
6%
23.0
2/2
19%
4.02
2/X
4%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+10.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
63%
-10.0pp
47%
BTTS No
37%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 36%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -8%
1.34/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.47
+10% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
251 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 77%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
19.0 Crosses 16.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crawley Town
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Swindon Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.45 xG 1.92
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
226 Passes 398
67% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 30
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.08.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 6-0 HT 1-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
08.05.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-1 HT 2-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
03.12.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
19.03.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 3-1 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
01.02.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
26.10.2019 Crawley Town Crawley Town 0-4 HT 0-2 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crawley Town
3-1
AWAY Swindon Town
2.21 xG 1.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 9
272 Passes 360
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 22
7 Crosses 27
POST-MATCH Crawley Town vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crawley Town got the better of Swindon Town 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Crawley Town made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Crawley Town had 44% of the ball to Swindon Town's 56%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 2.21 to 1.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swindon Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Crawley Town and 2.33 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Crawley Town vs Swindon Town?

Crawley Town 3-1 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 01/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crawley Town vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crawley Town win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Crawley Town 38%, draw 26%, Swindon Town 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crawley Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Crawley Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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