Colchester 0-1 Gillingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 1 Jan 2024

📅01/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
35%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.21
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.55
6+ Goals
11%
14.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.88
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
25.5
1/X
9%
13.5
X/1
17%
6.7
X/2
14%
4.65
X/X
10%
4.58
2/1
9%
34.0
2/2
10%
2.92
2/X
7%
13.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 11% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
30%
+8.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
35%
Away Win
44%
-8.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.6pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colchester EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Gillingham EU Bookmakers 48%
+2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -18%
1.27/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.42
+9% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -61%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
281 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 74%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 39.0
17.6 Crosses 33.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colchester
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Gillingham
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.20 xG 0.80
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
246 Passes 278
67% Pass Accuracy 69%
23 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 0-3 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
21.01.2023 Colchester Colchester 0-2 HT 0-2 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
26.12.2022 Gillingham Gillingham 0-1 HT 0-1 Colchester Colchester İN2
11.10.2022 Gillingham Gillingham 1-1 HT 1-1 Colchester Colchester İNTK
07.09.2021 Colchester Colchester 0-1 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İNTK
03.09.2019 Gillingham Gillingham 2-3 HT 1-1 Colchester Colchester İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Colchester
0-1
AWAY Gillingham
1.12 xG 0.91
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 6
385 Passes 348
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Colchester vs Gillingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gillingham edged past Colchester 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Gillingham made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Colchester had 51% of the ball to Gillingham's 49%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.12 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Colchester had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Colchester and 1.00 for Gillingham.

What was the final score of Colchester vs Gillingham?

Colchester 0-1 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 01/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colchester vs Gillingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Colchester win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Colchester 39%, draw 26%, Gillingham 35%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Colchester) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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