Sutton United 1-1 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 1 Jan 2024

Sutton United
1-1 HT 0-0
Newport County
📅01/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Sutton United vs Newport County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.94
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
3.84
6+ Goals
10%
17.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 31% vs market 27.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.59
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
13%
5.23
X/2
15%
5.64
X/X
12%
4.29
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
17%
3.99
2/X
6%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
-0.4pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.6pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sutton United v Newport County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sutton United EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +3%
1.16/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.06
-10% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
257 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 64%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
18.6 Crosses 18.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

Sutton United vs Newport County Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sutton United
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Newport County
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
0.83 xG 1.81
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
146 Passes 237
56% Pass Accuracy 61%
21 Box Touches 34
15 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
26.08.2023 Newport County Newport County 3-1 HT 0-0 Sutton United Sutton United İN2
25.02.2023 Newport County Newport County 0-2 HT 0-1 Sutton United Sutton United İN2
30.07.2022 Sutton United Sutton United 1-1 HT 1-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
18.04.2022 Sutton United Sutton United 1-0 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
07.12.2021 Newport County Newport County 3-2 HT 0-2 Sutton United Sutton United İN2

Sutton United 1-1 Newport County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sutton United
1-1
AWAY Newport County
1.80 xG 0.74
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 7
233 Passes 192
65% Pass Accuracy 57%
22 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sutton United vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sutton United and Newport County shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sutton United had 51% of the ball to Newport County's 49%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.80 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Sutton United and 1.40 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Sutton United vs Newport County?

Sutton United 1-1 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 01/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sutton United vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sutton United win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sutton United 38%, draw 25%, Newport County 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sutton United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sutton United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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