Coventry 1-2 Burnley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 5 Apr 2025

Coventry
1-2 HT 1-1
Burnley
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Coventry vs Burnley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.79
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.01
6+ Goals
9%
18.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 33% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.95
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
7%
13.85
X/1
14%
6.6
X/2
13%
5.0
X/X
11%
4.28
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
20%
3.23
2/X
8%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 59% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
31%
+2.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
41%
Away Win
41%
-0.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.3pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Coventry v Burnley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Coventry EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Burnley EU Bookmakers 45%
+10% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +25%
1.38/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/0.86
+34% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +134%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
277 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 77%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
17.6 Crosses 14.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Coventry vs Burnley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Coventry
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Burnley
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.46 xG 0.81
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
308 Passes 492
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.11.2024 Burnley Burnley 2-0 HT 0-0 Coventry Coventry İNCL
14.01.2023 Burnley Burnley 1-0 HT 0-0 Coventry Coventry İNCL
08.10.2022 Coventry Coventry 0-1 HT 0-1 Burnley Burnley İNCL
14.04.2012 Burnley Burnley 1-1 HT 1-0 Coventry Coventry İNCL
22.10.2011 Coventry Coventry 1-2 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNCL
15.03.2011 Burnley Burnley 2-2 HT 1-0 Coventry Coventry İNCL

Coventry 1-2 Burnley — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Coventry
1-2
AWAY Burnley
1.57 xG 1.63
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 5
253 Passes 256
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
32 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Coventry vs Burnley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burnley nicked a narrow win over Coventry 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Burnley as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Coventry had 50% of the ball to Burnley's 50%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.57 to 1.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Coventry and 1.50 for Burnley.

What was the final score of Coventry vs Burnley?

Coventry 1-2 Burnley in the England - Championship on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Coventry vs Burnley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Burnley win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Coventry 33%, draw 27%, Burnley 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burnley) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Burnley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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