Plymouth Argyle 2-1 Norwich City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
48%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.5
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.3
6+ Goals
11%
11.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
6.41
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
23.3
1/X
9%
14.75
X/1
6%
8.43
X/2
14%
4.53
X/X
8%
5.11
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
22%
2.46
2/X
7%
13.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.3 — our 12% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+3.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.2pp
48%
Away Win
50%
-2.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.8pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Norwich City EU Bookmakers 55%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -13%
0.95/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.01
+73% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -36%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
294 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
16.6 Crosses 18.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Plymouth Argyle
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Norwich City
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.91 xG 2.65
31% Ball Possession 69%
11 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
208 Passes 567
72% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 0
26.11.2024 Norwich City Norwich City 6-1 HT 2-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
29.03.2024 Norwich City Norwich City 2-1 HT 0-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
23.09.2023 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 6-2 HT 4-0 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
14.03.2009 Norwich City Norwich City 1-0 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
13.09.2008 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 1-2 HT 0-1 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
04.12.2007 Norwich City Norwich City 2-1 HT 1-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Plymouth Argyle
2-1
AWAY Norwich City
1.92 xG 1.14
25% Ball Possession 75%
8 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
99 Passes 442
57% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 21
6 Crosses 18
POST-MATCH Plymouth Argyle vs Norwich City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Plymouth Argyle edged past Norwich City 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Norwich City at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Plymouth Argyle had 25% of the ball to Norwich City's 75%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 1.92 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Norwich City led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Plymouth Argyle and 2.50 for Norwich City.

What was the final score of Plymouth Argyle vs Norwich City?

Plymouth Argyle 2-1 Norwich City in the England - Championship on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Plymouth Argyle vs Norwich City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Norwich City win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Plymouth Argyle 29%, draw 24%, Norwich City 48%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Norwich City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Norwich City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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