Mirassol FC 3-0 Ceara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 25 Nov 2025

📅25/11/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
20%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.7
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
17%
4.17
6+ Goals
8%
20.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.7 — our 33% vs market 30.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.36
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.6
X/1 EV+ ✗
29%
4.21
X/2
6%
9.25
X/X
13%
4.42
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
9%
7.9
2/X
6%
16.3
Value flag · X/1 at 4.21 — our 29% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
53%
+1.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
20%
Away Win
20%
-0.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.4pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceara EU Bookmakers 23%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.17/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.38
+3% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +36%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
348 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
24.4 Crosses 16.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mirassol FC
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Ceara
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
0.94 xG 1.63
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 10
327 Passes 293
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 36
3 Yellow Cards 4
24.07.2025 Ceara Ceara 0-2 HT 0-2 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR1
17.08.2024 Ceara Ceara 1-2 HT 0-1 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR2
30.04.2024 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 3-2 HT 2-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
12.11.2023 Ceara Ceara 2-0 HT 0-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR2
16.07.2023 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Ceara Ceara BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mirassol FC
3-0
AWAY Ceara
0.50 xG 1.20
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 12
429 Passes 392
90% Pass Accuracy 89%
12 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 34
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mirassol FC vs Ceara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mirassol FC ran out comfortable winners over Ceara 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mirassol FC as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mirassol FC had 51% of the ball to Ceara's 49%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.50 to 1.20 — the balance of chances actually favoured Ceara.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Mirassol FC had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Mirassol FC and 1.20 for Ceara.

What was the final score of Mirassol FC vs Ceara?

Mirassol FC 3-0 Ceara in the Brazil - Serie A on 25/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mirassol FC vs Ceara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mirassol FC win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Mirassol FC 54%, draw 26%, Ceara 20%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mirassol FC), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mirassol FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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