Ceara 1-2 Mirassol FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.56
Over 2.5
38%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
5.01
6+ Goals
8%
29.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.8pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.1pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.3pp
62%
Under 2.5
60%
+1.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
40%
-1.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.7pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceara EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.27/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.04
-28% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
316 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
23.7 Crosses 13.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceara
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Mirassol FC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.44 xG 0.96
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
253 Passes 339
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 2
30.04.2024 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 3-2 HT 2-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
12.11.2023 Ceara Ceara 2-0 HT 0-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR2
16.07.2023 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Ceara Ceara BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceara
1-2
AWAY Mirassol FC
2.96 xG 1.29
53% Ball Possession 47%
34 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
19 Corners 2
341 Passes 329
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 11
55 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ceara vs Mirassol FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mirassol FC nicked a narrow win over Ceara 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Ceara at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ceara had 53% of the ball to Mirassol FC's 47%, shots finished 34-7, expected goals 2.96 to 1.29 — the balance of chances actually favoured Ceara.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Ceara and 1.33 for Mirassol FC.

What was the final score of Ceara vs Mirassol FC?

Ceara 1-2 Mirassol FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceara vs Mirassol FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceara win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Ceara 45%, draw 31%, Mirassol FC 24%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ceara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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