Vila Nova 2-0 Sport Recife — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 17 Aug 2024

Vila Nova
2-0 HT 1-0
Sport Recife
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Vila Nova vs Sport Recife Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
31%
2.83
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.48
Over 2.5
37%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.06
No
60%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.24
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
5.51
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.5pp
31%
Draw
32%
-0.4pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
64%
-0.7pp
37%
Over 2.5
36%
+0.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.8pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vila Nova v Sport Recife — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 36%
+4% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -22%
1.27/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/0.94
-10% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -13%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
266 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 80%
16.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
20.6 Crosses 18.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5

Vila Nova vs Sport Recife Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Sport Recife
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.87 xG 0.95
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
249 Passes 338
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.04.2024 Sport Recife Sport Recife 2-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
03.08.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-1 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
19.06.2023 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
07.11.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
19.07.2022 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-0 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
17.11.2019 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-0 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2

Vila Nova 2-0 Sport Recife — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
2-0
AWAY Sport Recife
2.35 xG 0.69
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 6
199 Passes 372
71% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Sport Recife
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova saw off Sport Recife 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 31% / 32%) promised a tight game; Vila Nova found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Vila Nova had 38% of the ball to Sport Recife's 62%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 2.35 to 0.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sport Recife led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Vila Nova and 0.67 for Sport Recife.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Sport Recife?

Vila Nova 2-0 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Serie B on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Sport Recife?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 36%, draw 31%, Sport Recife 32%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vila Nova), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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