Sport Recife 2-0 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
31%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.16
No
51%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.53
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.68
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
57%
-14.5pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
31%
Away Win
18%
+13.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+6.6pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +19%
1.32/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.13
-4% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +28%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
370 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 75%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
22.9 Crosses 15.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sport Recife
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Vila Nova
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.88 xG 0.78
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
359 Passes 242
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.08.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-1 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
19.06.2023 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
07.11.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
19.07.2022 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-0 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
17.11.2019 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-0 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
21.08.2019 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-2 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sport Recife
2-0
AWAY Vila Nova
1.09 xG 0.95
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 9
247 Passes 314
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sport Recife vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sport Recife got the better of Vila Nova 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sport Recife as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sport Recife had 44% of the ball to Vila Nova's 56%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.09 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sport Recife had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sport Recife and 0.00 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Sport Recife vs Vila Nova?

Sport Recife 2-0 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sport Recife vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sport Recife win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sport Recife 43%, draw 27%, Vila Nova 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sport Recife), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sport Recife) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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