Guarani FC 0-1 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
33%
3.04
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.52
Over 2.5
34%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
16%
5.35
6+ Goals
7%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.5pp
33%
Draw
30%
+3.5pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-1.0pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.7pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.7pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.4pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guarani FC EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 28%
+8% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -7%
1.29/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.24
+7% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
276 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
19.6 Crosses 15.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guarani FC
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Chapecoense
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.29 xG 1.09
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
337 Passes 362
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
06.09.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-1 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
25.05.2023 Guarani FC Guarani FC 3-3 HT 3-1 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
06.11.2022 Guarani FC Guarani FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
21.07.2022 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
29.11.2020 Guarani FC Guarani FC 2-0 HT 2-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
25.08.2020 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-0 HT 2-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guarani FC
0-1
AWAY Chapecoense
2.08 xG 0.20
82% Ball Possession 18%
39 Total Shots 3
8 Shots on Target 1
14 Corners 0
572 Passes 76
88% Pass Accuracy 49%
28 Box Touches 3
52 Crosses 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Guarani FC vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chapecoense nicked a narrow win over Guarani FC 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Guarani FC at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Guarani FC had 82% of the ball to Chapecoense's 18%, shots finished 39-3, expected goals 2.08 to 0.20 — the balance of chances actually favoured Guarani FC.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guarani FC had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Guarani FC and 0.83 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of Guarani FC vs Chapecoense?

Guarani FC 0-1 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guarani FC vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guarani FC win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Guarani FC 44%, draw 33%, Chapecoense 23%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Guarani FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Guarani FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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