Avai 0-2 Santos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 27 Apr 2024

Avai
0-2 HT 0-0
Santos
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.69
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
41%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.56
Over 2.5
35%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.38
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.04
6+ Goals
6%
30.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.38 — our 37% vs market 35.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
24%
+7.8pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.0pp
42%
Away Win
47%
-5.6pp
65%
Under 2.5
60%
+4.4pp
35%
Over 2.5
40%
-4.4pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.9pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avai EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos EU Bookmakers 51%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+9% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
282 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 81%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.9 Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avai
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Santos
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.10 xG 1.12
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
279 Passes 412
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.11.2022 Santos Santos 1-1 HT 1-0 Avai Avai BR1
17.07.2022 Avai Avai 1-0 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BR1
07.11.2019 Avai Avai 1-2 HT 1-2 Santos Santos BR1
28.07.2019 Santos Santos 3-1 HT 2-1 Avai Avai BR1
03.12.2017 Santos Santos 1-1 HT 1-1 Avai Avai BR1
07.08.2017 Avai Avai 0-0 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avai
0-2
AWAY Santos
1.15 xG 1.34
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
10 Corners 7
344 Passes 351
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Avai vs Santos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos saw off Avai 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Santos as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Avai had 50% of the ball to Santos's 50%, shots finished 17-18, expected goals 1.15 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Avai and 1.17 for Santos.

What was the final score of Avai vs Santos?

Avai 0-2 Santos in the Brazil - Serie B on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avai vs Santos?

Before kick-off our model rated an Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Avai 32%, draw 27%, Santos 42%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santos), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Santos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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