Rayo Vallecano vs Girona Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Rayo Vallecano v Girona — Team-Based Signals
Rayo Vallecano vs Girona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Girona — Actual Match Statistics
Rayo Vallecano squeezed past Girona 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rayo Vallecano as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 57% of the ball to Girona's 43%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 2.39 to 0.99 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Rayo Vallecano's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Girona led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 2.00 for Girona.
What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Girona?
Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Girona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Girona?
Before kick-off our model rated a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 41%, draw 29%, Girona 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.