Real Oviedo 1-0 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.74
6+ Goals
9%
16.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 30% vs market 27.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.38
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
20%
4.29
X/2
9%
8.76
X/X
18%
4.55
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
9%
7.17
2/X
5%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-3.7pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+1.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+4.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-4.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.5pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Oviedo EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.33/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.88
+9% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +59% / -34%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 74%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
23.8 Crosses 15.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Oviedo
1W-1D-2L
AWAY CD Castellon
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.48 xG 0.85
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
280 Passes 305
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2024 CD Castellon CD Castellon 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo İS2
05.12.2023 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-1 HT 1-0 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo İSPK
03.04.2021 CD Castellon CD Castellon 1-0 HT 0-0 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo İS2
08.11.2020 Real Oviedo Real Oviedo 4-0 HT 1-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Oviedo
1-0
AWAY CD Castellon
1.20 xG 0.72
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 7
197 Passes 299
70% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Oviedo vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Oviedo nicked a narrow win over CD Castellon 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Real Oviedo as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Real Oviedo had 42% of the ball to CD Castellon's 58%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.20 to 0.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, CD Castellon led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Real Oviedo and 0.75 for CD Castellon.

What was the final score of Real Oviedo vs CD Castellon?

Real Oviedo 1-0 CD Castellon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Oviedo vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Oviedo win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Real Oviedo 48%, draw 29%, CD Castellon 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Oviedo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Oviedo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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