Albacete 2-1 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 26 Jan 2025

Albacete
2-1 HT 1-0
Almeria
📅26/01/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Albacete vs Almeria Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
45%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.3
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.37
6+ Goals
11%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 30% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.76
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
14%
6.81
X/2 EV+ ✗
20%
5.14
X/X
11%
4.58
2/1
5%
32.0
2/2
18%
3.06
2/X
7%
12.3
Value flag · X/2 at 5.14 — our 20% vs market 15.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-0.9pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.8pp
45%
Away Win
42%
+2.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.1pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Albacete v Almeria — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albacete EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 46%
-6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.23/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/0.87
-4% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +62% / +2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
254 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 78%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
18.8 Crosses 15.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8

Albacete vs Almeria Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albacete
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Almeria
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.18 xG 2.25
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
255 Passes 367
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
24.10.2024 Almeria Almeria 3-1 HT 1-1 Albacete Albacete İS2
15.05.2021 Almeria Almeria 1-1 HT 1-1 Albacete Albacete İS2
23.11.2020 Albacete Albacete 1-2 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
14.06.2020 Albacete Albacete 0-1 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
17.08.2019 Almeria Almeria 3-0 HT 0-0 Albacete Albacete İS2
08.06.2019 Almeria Almeria 3-0 HT 0-0 Albacete Albacete İS2

Albacete 2-1 Almeria — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albacete
2-1
AWAY Almeria
2.38 xG 1.27
30% Ball Possession 70%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
142 Passes 419
70% Pass Accuracy 88%
23 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Albacete vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albacete squeezed past Almeria 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Almeria at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Albacete had 30% of the ball to Almeria's 70%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 2.38 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almeria led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Albacete and 2.17 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Albacete vs Almeria?

Albacete 2-1 Almeria in the Spain - 2nd Division on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albacete vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated an Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Albacete 29%, draw 26%, Almeria 45%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Almeria) ✗ BTTS No
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