Estepona 1-1 Xerez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
26%
2.77
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
Over
43%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.33
No
57%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
41%
4-5
20%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
39%
Home Win
36%
+2.8pp
26%
Draw
33%
-6.2pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+3.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
39%
+4.5pp
57%
BTTS No
61%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estepona The Market 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Xerez The Market 34%
-1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.19/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/0.43
+6% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +150%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
314 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estepona
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Xerez
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
35% Ball Possession 65%
3 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 13
5 Yellow Cards 3
14.09.2024 Xerez Xerez 0-1 HT 0-0 Estepona Estepona İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estepona
1-1
AWAY Xerez
50% Ball Possession 50%
6 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Estepona vs Xerez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estepona and Xerez couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Estepona had 50% of the ball to Xerez's 50%, shots finished 6-5.

What was the final score of Estepona vs Xerez?

Estepona 1-1 Xerez in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estepona vs Xerez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estepona win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Estepona 39%, draw 26%, Xerez 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Estepona), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Estepona) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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