Navalcarnero 2-1 Union Sur Yaiza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+7.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.8pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Navalcarnero EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Sur Yaiza EU Bookmakers 25%
-5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.88/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/2.28
+23% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -42%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
401 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Navalcarnero
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Union Sur Yaiza
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
15.09.2024 Union Sur Yaiza 1-0 HT 0-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Navalcarnero
2-1
AWAY Union Sur Yaiza
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Navalcarnero vs Union Sur Yaiza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Navalcarnero nicked a narrow win over Union Sur Yaiza 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Navalcarnero as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Navalcarnero had 54% of the ball to Union Sur Yaiza's 46%, shots finished 8-7.

What was the final score of Navalcarnero vs Union Sur Yaiza?

Navalcarnero 2-1 Union Sur Yaiza in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Navalcarnero vs Union Sur Yaiza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Navalcarnero win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Navalcarnero 45%, draw 26%, Union Sur Yaiza 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Navalcarnero) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Navalcarnero) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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