Borussia Dortmund II 0-4 Arminia Bielefeld — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.03
Over Pick
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.86
2-3
40%
1.86
4-5
24%
3.24
6+
12%
10.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.49
1/2
7%
23.85
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
7%
6.67
X/2
17%
5.2
X/X
13%
5.0
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
18%
3.04
2/X
7%
12.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.85 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
42%
Away Win
42%
-0.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund II The Market 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld The Market 46%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +14%
1.37/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/0.86
+7% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +44%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
324 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.5 Crosses 23.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
09.03.2024 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 0-2 HT 0-2 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
07.10.2023 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
07.03.2015 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-1 HT 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
13.09.2014 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 3-0 HT 2-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
08.12.2012 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 4-2 HT 1-2 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
0-4
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 20
8 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
408 Passes 264
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund II vs Arminia Bielefeld
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arminia Bielefeld ran out comfortable winners over Borussia Dortmund II 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arminia Bielefeld as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund II had 58% of the ball to Arminia Bielefeld's 42%, shots finished 16-20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arminia Bielefeld led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Borussia Dortmund II and 2.17 for Arminia Bielefeld.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund II vs Arminia Bielefeld?

Borussia Dortmund II 0-4 Arminia Bielefeld in the Germany - 3rd Division on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund II vs Arminia Bielefeld?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arminia Bielefeld win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund II 32%, draw 26%, Arminia Bielefeld 42%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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