Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 Borussia Dortmund II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
4.63
2-3 Goals
41%
1.91
4-5 Goals
23%
2.86
6+ Goals
9%
8.08
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.63 — our 27% vs market 16.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.25
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
20%
4.33
X/2
8%
8.92
X/X
10%
5.79
2/1
7%
20.95
2/2
14%
6.11
2/X
9%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-6.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.8pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II EU Bookmakers 27%
-1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +15%
1.05/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.46
-42% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / +10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
296 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 0-2 HT 0-2 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
07.10.2023 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
07.03.2015 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-1 HT 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
13.09.2014 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 3-0 HT 2-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
08.12.2012 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 4-2 HT 1-2 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
28.07.2012 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-1 HT 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
1-0
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arminia Bielefeld nicked a narrow win over Borussia Dortmund II 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Arminia Bielefeld as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Arminia Bielefeld had 58% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund II's 42%, shots finished 13-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arminia Bielefeld had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.00 for Borussia Dortmund II.

What was the final score of Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund II?

Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 Borussia Dortmund II in the Germany - 3rd Division on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Dortmund II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arminia Bielefeld win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Arminia Bielefeld 46%, draw 25%, Borussia Dortmund II 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld) ✓ BTTS No
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