Osnabrück 0-2 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
27%
3.22
6+ Goals
11%
11.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.71
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
15%
4.63
X/2
7%
7.23
X/X
8%
5.03
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
15%
5.06
2/X
7%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
-0.0pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.1pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.3pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osnabrück EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.52/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.71
-5% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
295 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 78%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
13.6 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osnabrück
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.03 xG 1.12
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
328 Passes 263
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.02.2023 Osnabrück Osnabrück 3-1 HT 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
07.08.2022 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-1 HT 1-1 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
23.05.2021 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 0-1 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2
22.01.2021 Osnabrück Osnabrück 0-1 HT 0-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
21.02.2020 Osnabrück Osnabrück 0-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
15.09.2019 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 1-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osnabrück
0-2
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Osnabrück vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue beat Osnabrück 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Osnabrück at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Osnabrück had 45% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 55%, shots finished 9-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Osnabrück and 1.00 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Osnabrück vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Osnabrück 0-2 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osnabrück vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osnabrück win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Osnabrück 47%, draw 23%, Erzgebirge Aue 30%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Osnabrück) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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