Helmond Sport 2-1 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
27%
2.98
6+ Goals
9%
9.54
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.24
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
8%
12.45
X/1
16%
5.43
X/2
11%
6.35
X/X
14%
5.07
2/1
5%
24.3
2/2
15%
4.13
2/X
6%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-1.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
33%
Away Win
33%
-0.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.6pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +18%
1.33/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.57
+9% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
389 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 79%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
19.3 Crosses 9.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
3W-1D-2L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.98 xG 1.26
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
290 Passes 426
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.10.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
11.03.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-1 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
10.11.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-1 HT 2-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
23.01.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 1-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
12.08.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-3 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
29.04.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
2-1
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
0.63 xG 1.59
33% Ball Possession 67%
9 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
195 Passes 500
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
20 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Helmond Sport squeezed past AZ Alkmaar II 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Helmond Sport found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 33% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 67%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.63 to 1.59 — on chances, AZ Alkmaar II could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Helmond Sport had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.50 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Helmond Sport 2-1 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Helmond Sport win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 40%, draw 28%, AZ Alkmaar II 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Helmond Sport), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Helmond Sport) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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