Excelsior 1-0 ADO Den Haag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.8
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
22%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.31
2-3 Goals
36%
1.85
4-5 Goals
29%
2.74
6+ Goals
15%
7.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
2.37
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
11%
4.65
X/2
5%
8.41
X/X
12%
5.77
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.65
2/2
12%
5.86
2/X
4%
14.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.65 — our 8% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
51%
+3.7pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
22%
Away Win
25%
-2.6pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.5pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.5pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY ADO Den Haag EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +17%
2.10/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.38
+40% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 73%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
20.9 Crosses 18.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
3W-2D-1L
AWAY ADO Den Haag
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.07 xG 1.80
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
371 Passes 334
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 27
21 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2024 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 0-5 HT 0-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
25.05.2024 Excelsior Excelsior 7-1 HT 4-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
22.05.2024 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 1-2 HT 0-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
29.05.2022 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 4-4 HT 2-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
24.05.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 1-1 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
25.01.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 2-3 HT 1-2 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
1-0
AWAY ADO Den Haag
1.68 xG 0.49
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
397 Passes 202
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
33 Box Touches 7
28 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior nicked a narrow win over ADO Den Haag 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Excelsior had 62% of the ball to ADO Den Haag's 38%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.68 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Excelsior and 1.67 for ADO Den Haag.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?

Excelsior 1-0 ADO Den Haag in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs ADO Den Haag?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 55%, draw 23%, ADO Den Haag 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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