ADO Den Haag 0-5 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 30 Aug 2024

📅30/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.29
Over 2.5
62%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.5
No
41%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.8
2-3 Goals
33%
1.93
4-5 Goals
31%
2.81
6+ Goals
15%
7.67
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.69
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
5%
12.95
X/1
13%
4.85
X/2
8%
7.19
X/X
10%
5.67
2/1
6%
21.85
2/2
20%
4.63
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
13.15
Value flag · 2/X at 13.15 — our 9% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.4pp
38%
Under 2.5
40%
-1.5pp
62%
Over 2.5
60%
+1.5pp
59%
BTTS Yes
62%
-3.0pp
41%
BTTS No
38%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADO Den Haag EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +4%
1.41/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/2.23
+22% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -34%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
349 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
22.7 Crosses 18.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADO Den Haag
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Excelsior
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.64 xG 1.99
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
351 Passes 357
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 26
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
25.05.2024 Excelsior Excelsior 7-1 HT 4-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
22.05.2024 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 1-2 HT 0-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
29.05.2022 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 4-4 HT 2-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
24.05.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 1-1 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
25.01.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 2-3 HT 1-2 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
22.10.2021 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 0-2 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADO Den Haag
0-5
AWAY Excelsior
1.71 xG 1.63
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
336 Passes 304
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior ran out comfortable winners over ADO Den Haag 5-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was ADO Den Haag at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, over 2.5 goals (62%) landed while both teams to score (59%) missed.

On the day, ADO Den Haag had 53% of the ball to Excelsior's 47%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 1.71 to 1.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for ADO Den Haag and 3.00 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?

ADO Den Haag 0-5 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 30/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a ADO Den Haag win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split ADO Den Haag 43%, draw 24%, Excelsior 33%. The final score 0-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (ADO Den Haag), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ADO Den Haag) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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