Heartland 1-0 Lobi Stars — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
16%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.52
Over 2.5
44%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.16
No
51%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
30%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
5%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
50%
+8.3pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.6pp
15%
Away Win
20%
-4.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.0pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heartland EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Lobi Stars EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
1.14/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.30/1.97
-15% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -49% / -39%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
344 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heartland
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Lobi Stars
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
29% Ball Possession 71%
7 Total Shots 27
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 4
6 Yellow Cards 3
29.12.2024 Lobi Stars Lobi Stars 0-0 HT 0-0 Heartland Heartland NIJ
25.02.2024 Lobi Stars Lobi Stars 1-0 HT 0-0 Heartland Heartland NIJ
17.02.2022 Heartland Heartland 1-0 HT 0-0 Lobi Stars Lobi Stars NIJ
15.02.2021 Heartland Heartland 2-0 HT 1-0 Lobi Stars Lobi Stars NIJ
POST-MATCH Heartland vs Lobi Stars
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heartland squeezed past Lobi Stars 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Heartland as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Heartland had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Heartland and 0.25 for Lobi Stars.

What was the final score of Heartland vs Lobi Stars?

Heartland 1-0 Lobi Stars in the Nigeria NPFL on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heartland vs Lobi Stars?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heartland win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Heartland 58%, draw 26%, Lobi Stars 15%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heartland), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Heartland) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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