Erbaaspor 4-3 Karacabey Belediye Spor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 2nd Division Kırmızı Grup, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.67
Draw
34%
3.18
Away
37%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
50%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
20%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
34%
-4.4pp
34%
Draw
28%
+5.9pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-1.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.2pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erbaaspor EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Karacabey Belediye Spor EU Bookmakers 43%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.52/1.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/0.38
+41% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +143%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
300 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erbaaspor
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Karacabey Belediye Spor
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
07.09.2024 Karacabey Belediye Spor Karacabey Belediye Spor 1-0 HT 1-0 Erbaaspor Erbaaspor T2L-K
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erbaaspor
4-3
AWAY Karacabey Belediye Spor
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Erbaaspor vs Karacabey Belediye Spor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erbaaspor squeezed past Karacabey Belediye Spor 4-3. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (29% / 34% / 37%) promised a tight game; Erbaaspor found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Erbaaspor had 51% of the ball to Karacabey Belediye Spor's 49%, shots finished 16-12.

What was the final score of Erbaaspor vs Karacabey Belediye Spor?

Erbaaspor 4-3 Karacabey Belediye Spor in the Turkey - 2nd Division Kırmızı Grup on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erbaaspor vs Karacabey Belediye Spor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karacabey Belediye Spor win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Erbaaspor 29%, draw 34%, Karacabey Belediye Spor 37%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Karacabey Belediye Spor), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Karacabey Belediye Spor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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