Fenerbahçe 3-2 Göztepe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
57%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
18%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.1
Over
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.7
No
55%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.9
2-3
38%
1.82
4-5
25%
3.0
6+
12%
9.5
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.9 — our 25% vs market 19.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.06
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.05
X/1
19%
4.27
X/2
6%
10.25
X/X
13%
5.63
2/1
7%
21.45
2/2
7%
7.86
2/X
7%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Fenerbahçe win — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
57%
Home Win
57%
+0.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
18%
Away Win
20%
-2.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
55%
-10.1pp
55%
BTTS No
45%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe The Market 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Göztepe The Market 23%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -6%
2.09/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.75
+11% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
382 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 80%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
23.9 Crosses 17.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Göztepe
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.78 xG 1.34
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
390 Passes 251
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2024 Göztepe Göztepe 2-2 HT 0-2 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
16.04.2022 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-0 HT 1-0 Göztepe Göztepe TSL
29.11.2021 Göztepe Göztepe 1-1 HT 1-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
21.02.2021 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 0-1 HT 0-1 Göztepe Göztepe TSL
18.10.2020 Göztepe Göztepe 2-3 HT 1-2 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
04.07.2020 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-1 HT 2-0 Göztepe Göztepe TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
3-2
AWAY Göztepe
1.00 xG 1.57
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
324 Passes 207
76% Pass Accuracy 68%
15 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe nicked a narrow win over Göztepe 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 59% of the ball to Göztepe's 41%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.00 to 1.57 — the balance of chances actually favoured Göztepe.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.17 for Göztepe.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe?

Fenerbahçe 3-2 Göztepe in the Turkey - Super League on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 57%, draw 25%, Göztepe 18%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✗ BTTS No
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