Cherno More Varna 1-0 Levski Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - Cup, 26 Feb 2025

📅26/02/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
2.99
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
48%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.59
Over 2.5
47%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.96
No
43%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
7%
X/2
26%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
30%
-8.2pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.0pp
48%
Away Win
41%
+7.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
59%
-6.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
41%
+6.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
47%
+9.8pp
43%
BTTS No
53%
-9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Levski Sofia EU Bookmakers 45%
-43% / -43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-11% / -86% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
261 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cherno More Varna
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Levski Sofia
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2024 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 2-1 HT 2-0 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia BUL1
12.05.2024 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 0-0 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
13.04.2024 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 3-1 HT 1-0 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia BUL1
22.10.2023 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 1-0 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
26.05.2023 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 2-1 HT 1-1 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cherno More Varna
1-0
AWAY Levski Sofia
49% Ball Possession 51%
4 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna squeezed past Levski Sofia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Levski Sofia at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cherno More Varna had 49% of the ball to Levski Sofia's 51%, shots finished 4-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Cherno More Varna and 1.00 for Levski Sofia.

What was the final score of Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia?

Cherno More Varna 1-0 Levski Sofia in the Bulgaria - Cup on 26/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Levski Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Cherno More Varna 22%, draw 30%, Levski Sofia 48%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Levski Sofia), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Levski Sofia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BULK More Bulgaria - Cup
26 Feb 2025
19:00 CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali Analysis →