Benfica 1-0 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 26 Feb 2025

Benfica
1-0 HT 1-0
Sporting Braga
📅26/02/2025 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2024/2025

Benfica vs Sporting Braga Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.33
Over 2.5
53%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.55
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.75
6+ Goals
12%
7.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.6
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.45
X/1
10%
3.88
X/2
8%
15.6
X/X
10%
7.35
2/1
9%
20.6
2/2
6%
12.85
2/X
7%
21.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
69%
-9.5pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.3pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+7.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
39%
+8.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
61%
-8.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.8pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Benfica v Sporting Braga — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 16%
+5% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
2.67/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/1.62
+37% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +113% / -3%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
459 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 76%
35.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
20.9 Crosses 21.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.8

Benfica vs Sporting Braga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Sporting Braga
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.12 xG 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
411 Passes 331
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
31 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.01.2025 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 3-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga PRLK
04.01.2025 Benfica Benfica 1-2 HT 0-2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
27.04.2024 Benfica Benfica 3-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
10.01.2024 Benfica Benfica 3-2 HT 2-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POK
17.12.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-1 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
06.05.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR

Benfica 1-0 Sporting Braga — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
1-0
AWAY Sporting Braga
2.72 xG 0.27
47% Ball Possession 53%
19 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 6
339 Passes 369
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
43 Box Touches 14
11 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica nicked a narrow win over Sporting Braga 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Benfica had 47% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 53%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.72 to 0.27 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Benfica's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Benfica and 0.83 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Sporting Braga?

Benfica 1-0 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Cup on 26/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Benfica 59%, draw 21%, Sporting Braga 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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