Almanya 2-1 Hollanda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 26 Mar 2024

📅26/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.1
Over 2.5
57%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.11
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
28%
3.06
6+ Goals
10%
9.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.47
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.8
X/1
12%
4.38
X/2
11%
7.85
X/X
9%
5.48
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
9%
5.51
2/X
9%
14.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 10% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-5.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
-0.7pp
43%
BTTS No
43%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almanya EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Hollanda EU Bookmakers 29%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
2.03/2.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/0.89
+21% / -52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +78%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
390 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 78%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
19.8 Crosses 11.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almanya
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Hollanda
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.76 xG 1.57
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
472 Passes 417
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2022 Hollanda Hollanda 1-1 HT 0-1 Almanya Almanya HAZ
06.09.2019 Almanya Almanya 2-4 HT 1-0 Hollanda Hollanda AVŞE
24.03.2019 Hollanda Hollanda 2-3 HT 0-2 Almanya Almanya AVŞE
19.11.2018 Almanya Almanya 2-2 HT 2-0 Hollanda Hollanda AVUL
13.10.2018 Hollanda Hollanda 3-0 HT 1-0 Almanya Almanya AVUL
14.11.2012 Hollanda Hollanda 0-0 HT 0-0 Almanya Almanya HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almanya
2-1
AWAY Hollanda
1.09 xG 0.66
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
669 Passes 391
92% Pass Accuracy 88%
31 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Almanya vs Hollanda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almanya edged past Hollanda 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Almanya as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Almanya had 62% of the ball to Hollanda's 38%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.09 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hollanda led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Almanya and 2.00 for Hollanda.

What was the final score of Almanya vs Hollanda?

Almanya 2-1 Hollanda in the Friendlies on 26/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almanya vs Hollanda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almanya win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Almanya 45%, draw 25%, Hollanda 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almanya), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Almanya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HAZ More Friendlies
26 Mar 2024
00:00 Bolivya vs Andorra Analysis →
00:00 Komorlar vs Angola Analysis →
13:00 Başakşehir FK vs Tuzlaspor Analysis →
16:00 Portekiz U20 vs Danimarka U20 Analysis →
18:30 AIK vs Valerenga Analysis →
20:00 Finlandiya vs Estonya Analysis →