Finlandiya 2-1 Estonya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 26 Mar 2024

Finlandiya
2-1 HT 2-0
Estonya
📅26/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Friendlies – 2024

Finlandiya vs Estonya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.49
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.64
Over 2.5
38%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
31%
2.33
No
69%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
41%
2.58
2-3 Goals
34%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.56
6+ Goals
6%
24.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.58 — our 41% vs market 32.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
63%
-1.1pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.6pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+3.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
57%
+4.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
43%
-4.6pp
31%
BTTS Yes
39%
-7.7pp
69%
BTTS No
61%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Finlandiya v Estonya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Finlandiya EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Estonya EU Bookmakers 17%
-50% / -50% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +25%
1.05/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/1.23
-66% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +150%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
422 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
25.0 Crosses 15.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.4

Finlandiya vs Estonya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Finlandiya
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Estonya
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.42 xG 0.89
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
430 Passes 228
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.01.2023 Finlandiya Finlandiya 0-1 HT 0-0 Estonya Estonya HAZ
04.06.2021 Finlandiya Finlandiya 0-1 HT 0-0 Estonya Estonya HAZ
11.01.2019 Finlandiya Finlandiya 1-2 HT 0-1 Estonya Estonya HAZ
12.10.2018 Estonya Estonya 0-1 HT 0-0 Finlandiya Finlandiya AVUL
11.09.2018 Finlandiya Finlandiya 1-0 HT 1-0 Estonya Estonya AVUL
09.11.2017 Finlandiya Finlandiya 3-0 HT 2-0 Estonya Estonya HAZ

Finlandiya 2-1 Estonya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Finlandiya
2-1
AWAY Estonya
2.45 xG 1.03
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
427 Passes 232
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
38 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Finlandiya vs Estonya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Finlandiya edged past Estonya 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Finlandiya as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (69%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Finlandiya had 61% of the ball to Estonya's 39%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 2.45 to 1.03 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Finlandiya's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Finlandiya and 0.67 for Estonya.

What was the final score of Finlandiya vs Estonya?

Finlandiya 2-1 Estonya in the Friendlies on 26/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Finlandiya vs Estonya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Finlandiya win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Finlandiya 61%, draw 21%, Estonya 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Finlandiya) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Finlandiya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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