Slovenya 2-0 Portekiz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 26 Mar 2024

📅26/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.91
Draw
32%
4.08
Away
45%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.99
No
48%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.45
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.46
6+ Goals
11%
13.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
10.6
1/2
9%
24.0
1/X
7%
18.5
X/1
8%
12.8
X/2
13%
3.58
X/X
14%
5.57
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
23%
1.84
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
17.45
Value flag · 2/X at 17.45 — our 11% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
14%
+9.6pp
32%
Draw
21%
+10.9pp
45%
Away Win
66%
-20.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
54%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slovenya EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Portekiz EU Bookmakers 70%
-34% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
0.19/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.93/1.01
-83% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / +12%
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
229 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 501 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 50.0
Crosses 13.9
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slovenya
2-0
AWAY Portekiz
1.17 xG 0.69
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
332 Passes 689
81% Pass Accuracy 93%
13 Box Touches 28
7 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Slovenya vs Portekiz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slovenya saw off Portekiz 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Portekiz at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Slovenya had 36% of the ball to Portekiz's 64%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 1.17 to 0.69.

What was the final score of Slovenya vs Portekiz?

Slovenya 2-0 Portekiz in the Friendlies on 26/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slovenya vs Portekiz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Portekiz win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Slovenya 23%, draw 32%, Portekiz 45%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Portekiz) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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