Aluminium Arak 4-4 Persepolis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iran - Cup, 26 Apr 2024

📅26/04/2024 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.04
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
48%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.64
Over 2.5
33%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.62
2-3 Goals
46%
1.77
4-5 Goals
13%
4.49
6+ Goals
6%
23.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 35% vs market 32.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
3%
1/X
11%
X/1
5%
X/2
18%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
27%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
21%
-1.6pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.8pp
48%
Away Win
52%
-3.3pp
67%
Under 2.5
57%
+9.6pp
33%
Over 2.5
43%
-9.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.0pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aluminium Arak EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Persepolis EU Bookmakers 56%
+51% / +51% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+45% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
237 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aluminium Arak
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Persepolis
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
15.02.2024 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak 1-0 HT 0-0 Persepolis Persepolis IRAN
09.08.2023 Persepolis Persepolis 1-0 HT 1-0 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak IRAN
01.02.2023 Persepolis Persepolis 0-0 HT 0-0 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak IRAN
26.08.2022 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak 0-1 HT 0-1 Persepolis Persepolis IRAN
10.04.2022 Persepolis Persepolis 2-3 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak IRANK
18.02.2022 Persepolis Persepolis 2-0 HT 0-0 Aluminium Arak Aluminium Arak IRAN
POST-MATCH Aluminium Arak vs Persepolis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aluminium Arak and Persepolis couldn't be separated, finishing 4-4. Half-time: 0-2. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Persepolis at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Persepolis led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Aluminium Arak and 1.00 for Persepolis.

What was the final score of Aluminium Arak vs Persepolis?

Aluminium Arak 4-4 Persepolis in the Iran - Cup on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aluminium Arak vs Persepolis?

Before kick-off our model rated an Persepolis win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Aluminium Arak 20%, draw 32%, Persepolis 48%. The final score 4-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Persepolis) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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