Dumbarton 3-1 Annan Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.41
2-3 Goals
35%
1.88
4-5 Goals
22%
2.77
6+ Goals
14%
7.67
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.41 — our 29% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
31%
+1.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.5pp
42%
Away Win
45%
-2.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.8pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dumbarton EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Annan Athletic EU Bookmakers 49%
-8% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -64% / -64%
1.41/1.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/3.00
+4% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -62%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
328 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dumbarton
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Annan Athletic
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
20 Total Shots 15
14 Shots on Target 8
18 Corners 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.02.2025 Annan Athletic Annan Athletic 2-1 HT 0-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK1
14.12.2024 Dumbarton Dumbarton 1-5 HT 1-2 Annan Athletic Annan Athletic İK1
14.09.2024 Annan Athletic Annan Athletic 1-1 HT 0-1 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK1
25.11.2023 Annan Athletic Annan Athletic 4-5 HT 0-2 Dumbarton Dumbarton İKK
13.05.2023 Dumbarton Dumbarton 0-0 HT 0-0 Annan Athletic Annan Athletic İK2
09.05.2023 Annan Athletic Annan Athletic 6-0 HT 3-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK2
POST-MATCH Dumbarton vs Annan Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dumbarton beat Annan Athletic 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Annan Athletic at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Annan Athletic led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Dumbarton and 3.00 for Annan Athletic.

What was the final score of Dumbarton vs Annan Athletic?

Dumbarton 3-1 Annan Athletic in the Scotland - 1st Division on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dumbarton vs Annan Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated an Annan Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Dumbarton 33%, draw 25%, Annan Athletic 42%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Annan Athletic)
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