Basingstoke Town 3-0 Merthyr Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under
40%
2.21
Over Pick
60%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.46
No
40%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1
21%
2-3
42%
4-5
31%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
12%
X/X
5%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
+0.5pp
21%
Draw
22%
-1.2pp
39%
Away Win
38%
+0.6pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.4pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.4pp
60%
BTTS Yes
64%
-4.0pp
40%
BTTS No
36%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Basingstoke Town EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 43%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +3%
1.55/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.44/1.45
+2% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +68% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
334 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Basingstoke Town
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Merthyr Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.02.2025 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Basingstoke Town Basingstoke Town İNGNLP
06.01.2024 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 4-1 HT 3-1 Basingstoke Town Basingstoke Town İNGNLP
03.10.2023 Basingstoke Town Basingstoke Town 1-3 HT 1-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Basingstoke Town vs Merthyr Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Basingstoke Town ran out comfortable winners over Merthyr Town 3-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 21% / 39%) promised a tight game; Basingstoke Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, over 2.5 goals (60%) landed while both teams to score (60%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Merthyr Town led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Basingstoke Town and 2.67 for Merthyr Town.

What was the final score of Basingstoke Town vs Merthyr Town?

Basingstoke Town 3-0 Merthyr Town in the England - Non League Premier on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Basingstoke Town vs Merthyr Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Basingstoke Town win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Basingstoke Town 40%, draw 21%, Merthyr Town 39%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Basingstoke Town), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Basingstoke Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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