Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-3 Nürnberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
31%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.75
2-3 Goals
36%
1.83
4-5 Goals
28%
3.14
6+ Goals
11%
10.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.31
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.35
X/1
13%
4.37
X/2
11%
8.89
X/X
13%
5.59
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.9
2/2
13%
6.74
2/X
7%
15.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.9 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
53%
-11.6pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.1pp
32%
Away Win
23%
+8.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.4pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 26%
-4% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +16%
1.77/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.73
+9% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
348 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 73%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
22.3 Crosses 14.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Nürnberg
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.73 xG 1.13
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
429 Passes 339
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.12.2024 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-2 HT 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
03.05.2024 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 HT 2-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
02.12.2023 Nürnberg Nürnberg 0-5 HT 0-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
22.04.2023 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
08.02.2023 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-1 HT 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AFK
15.10.2022 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf
3-3
AWAY Nürnberg
2.36 xG 1.99
58% Ball Possession 42%
23 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 0
559 Passes 390
91% Pass Accuracy 86%
39 Box Touches 15
42 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Nürnberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Düsseldorf and Nürnberg couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Fortuna Düsseldorf at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Fortuna Düsseldorf had 58% of the ball to Nürnberg's 42%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 2.36 to 1.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.17 for Nürnberg.

What was the final score of Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Nürnberg?

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-3 Nürnberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Nürnberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Düsseldorf win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Düsseldorf 42%, draw 27%, Nürnberg 32%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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