Paderborn 1-1 Elversberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
38%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.21
Over 2.5
58%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.53
No
48%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.32
2-3 Goals
37%
1.88
4-5 Goals
27%
2.89
6+ Goals
14%
8.37
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.0
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
28.0
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
10%
5.33
X/2
12%
6.88
X/X
10%
5.51
2/1
8%
22.9
2/2
18%
4.45
2/X
7%
13.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.0 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.4pp
38%
Away Win
31%
+6.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.7pp
48%
BTTS No
39%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Elversberg EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +12%
2.11/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.48
+4% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 75%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
21.7 Crosses 12.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Elversberg
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.61 xG 1.41
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
415 Passes 359
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.11.2024 Elversberg Elversberg 1-3 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
27.04.2024 Paderborn Paderborn 3-1 HT 0-0 Elversberg Elversberg AL2
25.11.2023 Elversberg Elversberg 4-1 HT 1-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
1-1
AWAY Elversberg
0.51 xG 0.92
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
333 Passes 444
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Elversberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn and Elversberg couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Paderborn had 44% of the ball to Elversberg's 56%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.51 to 0.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Paderborn had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Paderborn and 2.00 for Elversberg.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Elversberg?

Paderborn 1-1 Elversberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Elversberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 39%, draw 24%, Elversberg 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paderborn), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paderborn) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL2 More Germany - 2. Bundesliga
26 Apr 2025
14:00 Preussen Münster vs Darmstadt 98 Analysis →
14:00 Jahn Regensburg vs Braunschweig Analysis →
21:30 Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Nürnberg Analysis →