Paderborn 3-1 Elversberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
34%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.74
Over 2.5
64%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.41
No
39%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.47
2-3 Goals
35%
2.13
4-5 Goals
30%
2.51
6+ Goals
17%
5.27
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.34
1/2
8%
31.5
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
10%
4.75
X/2
11%
8.33
X/X
8%
6.59
2/1
11%
19.5
2/2
15%
5.02
2/X
8%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-6.2pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.0pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+7.2pp
36%
Under 2.5
33%
+3.7pp
64%
Over 2.5
67%
-3.7pp
61%
BTTS Yes
67%
-6.1pp
39%
BTTS No
33%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Elversberg EU Bookmakers 30%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.92/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.80
+15% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 78%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
18.3 Crosses 11.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Elversberg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
1.04 xG 1.10
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 4
396 Passes 341
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2023 Elversberg Elversberg 4-1 HT 1-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
3-1
AWAY Elversberg
2.19 xG 1.72
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
419 Passes 386
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 27
27 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Elversberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn saw off Elversberg 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Paderborn as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Paderborn had 54% of the ball to Elversberg's 46%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.19 to 1.72.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Elversberg?

Paderborn 3-1 Elversberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Elversberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 45%, draw 22%, Elversberg 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paderborn), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paderborn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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