Holstein Kiel 1-3 Kaiserslautern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 27 Apr 2024

Holstein Kiel
1-3 HT 1-2
Kaiserslautern
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.55
No
42%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.82
2-3 Goals
42%
1.93
4-5 Goals
26%
2.81
6+ Goals
12%
7.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.32
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.45
X/1
13%
4.44
X/2
10%
8.58
X/X
13%
5.83
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.9
2/2
9%
5.75
2/X
6%
13.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.9 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.5pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.8pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Holstein Kiel v Kaiserslautern — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Kaiserslautern EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -14%
1.97/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.49
-6% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
381 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 73%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
23.3 Crosses 18.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Kaiserslautern
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
1.07 xG 1.77
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
375 Passes 230
79% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.11.2023 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 0-3 HT 0-2 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
04.02.2023 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 2-1 HT 1-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
23.07.2022 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-2 HT 0-1 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern AL2
09.02.2018 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 3-1 HT 2-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
09.09.2017 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-1 HT 1-0 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern AL2

Holstein Kiel 1-3 Kaiserslautern — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstein Kiel
1-3
AWAY Kaiserslautern
1.26 xG 1.27
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 19
10 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
386 Passes 226
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kaiserslautern beat Holstein Kiel 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Holstein Kiel at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Holstein Kiel had 60% of the ball to Kaiserslautern's 40%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 1.26 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.60 for Kaiserslautern.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern?

Holstein Kiel 1-3 Kaiserslautern in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern?

Before kick-off our model rated a Holstein Kiel win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 47%, draw 26%, Kaiserslautern 27%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Holstein Kiel) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Holstein Kiel) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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