Naftan Novopolotsk 3-1 Smorgon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
34%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.63
2-3 Goals
47%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
4.08
6+ Goals
7%
20.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
17%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-4.0pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.7pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+5.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.3pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Smorgon EU Bookmakers 32%
-36% / -36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -32%
0.57/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/2.24
-58% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -47%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
293 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Smorgon
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.08.2024 Smorgon Smorgon 1-0 HT 1-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
14.04.2024 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 1-1 HT 0-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
24.09.2023 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 3-0 HT 2-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
07.05.2023 Smorgon Smorgon 1-0 HT 0-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
24.05.2020 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-1 HT 0-1 Smorgon Smorgon BLR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk
3-1
AWAY Smorgon
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Naftan Novopolotsk vs Smorgon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naftan Novopolotsk beat Smorgon 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Naftan Novopolotsk as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Naftan Novopolotsk had 41% of the ball to Smorgon's 59%, shots finished 9-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Smorgon led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Naftan Novopolotsk and 0.80 for Smorgon.

What was the final score of Naftan Novopolotsk vs Smorgon?

Naftan Novopolotsk 3-1 Smorgon in the Belarus - Premier League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naftan Novopolotsk vs Smorgon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naftan Novopolotsk win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Naftan Novopolotsk 41%, draw 25%, Smorgon 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Naftan Novopolotsk) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Naftan Novopolotsk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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