Naftan Novopolotsk vs Smorgon Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Naftan Novopolotsk v Smorgon — Team-Based Signals
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Smorgon Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
3-0
HT 2-0
Smorgon
BLR
1-0
HT 0-0
Naftan Novopolotsk
BLR
0-1
HT 0-1
Smorgon
BLR1
Naftan Novopolotsk 3-1 Smorgon — Actual Match Statistics
Naftan Novopolotsk beat Smorgon 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Naftan Novopolotsk as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Naftan Novopolotsk had 41% of the ball to Smorgon's 59%, shots finished 9-10.
Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Smorgon led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Naftan Novopolotsk and 0.80 for Smorgon.
What was the final score of Naftan Novopolotsk vs Smorgon?
Naftan Novopolotsk 3-1 Smorgon in the Belarus - Premier League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Naftan Novopolotsk vs Smorgon?
Before kick-off our model rated a Naftan Novopolotsk win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Naftan Novopolotsk 41%, draw 25%, Smorgon 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Naftan Novopolotsk) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.