Vila Nova vs Chapecoense Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Vila Nova v Chapecoense — Team-Based Signals
Vila Nova vs Chapecoense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Chapecoense
BR2
0-1
HT 0-0
Vila Nova
BR2
1-2
HT 1-1
Vila Nova
BR2
0-0
HT 0-0
Chapecoense
BR2
Vila Nova 1-0 Chapecoense — Actual Match Statistics
Vila Nova nicked a narrow win over Chapecoense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vila Nova as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (62%) came in.
On the day, Vila Nova had 51% of the ball to Chapecoense's 49%, shots finished 22-14, expected goals 1.71 to 0.55.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vila Nova had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Vila Nova and 0.67 for Chapecoense.
What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Chapecoense?
Vila Nova 1-0 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Chapecoense?
Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 41%, draw 30%, Chapecoense 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vila Nova), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.