Vila Nova 3-2 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 19 Sep 2024

Vila Nova
3-2 HT 2-0
Chapecoense
📅19/09/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Vila Nova vs Chapecoense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
32%
3.54
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.67
Over 2.5
34%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.13
No
63%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
41%
2.69
2-3 Goals
35%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.36
6+ Goals
7%
22.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.69 — our 41% vs market 31.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-9.6pp
32%
Draw
25%
+6.9pp
19%
Away Win
17%
+2.7pp
66%
Under 2.5
56%
+10.1pp
34%
Over 2.5
44%
-10.1pp
37%
BTTS Yes
43%
-6.2pp
63%
BTTS No
57%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vila Nova v Chapecoense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +19%
1.52/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.50
-7% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +40%
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
351 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 78%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
23.5 Crosses 13.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.2

Vila Nova vs Chapecoense Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
2W-3D-0L
AWAY Chapecoense
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.40
1.23 xG 0.72
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
321 Passes 317
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.06.2024 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-1 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
01.10.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
07.06.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
30.08.2022 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-2 HT 1-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
20.05.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2

Vila Nova 3-2 Chapecoense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
3-2
AWAY Chapecoense
1.21 xG 1.29
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
318 Passes 259
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 13
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova squeezed past Chapecoense 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vila Nova as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vila Nova had 53% of the ball to Chapecoense's 47%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.21 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Vila Nova had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Vila Nova and 0.40 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Chapecoense?

Vila Nova 3-2 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 19/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 49%, draw 32%, Chapecoense 19%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vila Nova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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