America Mineiro 2-0 Paysandu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 19 Sep 2024

📅19/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.67
Over 2.5
37%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.74
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.28
6+ Goals
8%
21.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 37% vs market 30.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
53%
-10.2pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.3pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+8.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.4pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-5.7pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Paysandu EU Bookmakers 23%
+2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +10%
1.44/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/0.89
+11% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
21.7 Crosses 19.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME America Mineiro
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Paysandu
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.83 xG 1.45
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
341 Passes 205
77% Pass Accuracy 69%
19 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
05.06.2024 Paysandu Paysandu 2-0 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
09.09.2017 Paysandu Paysandu 0-1 HT 0-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
03.06.2017 America Mineiro America Mineiro 0-2 HT 0-1 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
04.11.2015 America Mineiro America Mineiro 3-1 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
29.07.2015 Paysandu Paysandu 2-0 HT 1-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
30.10.2013 America Mineiro America Mineiro 0-1 HT 0-1 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME America Mineiro
2-0
AWAY Paysandu
1.77 xG 0.22
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
333 Passes 454
83% Pass Accuracy 89%
24 Box Touches 10
19 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH America Mineiro vs Paysandu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

America Mineiro beat Paysandu 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had America Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, America Mineiro had 44% of the ball to Paysandu's 56%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.77 to 0.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paysandu led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for America Mineiro and 1.33 for Paysandu.

What was the final score of America Mineiro vs Paysandu?

America Mineiro 2-0 Paysandu in the Brazil - Serie B on 19/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for America Mineiro vs Paysandu?

Before kick-off our model rated a America Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split America Mineiro 43%, draw 29%, Paysandu 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (America Mineiro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (America Mineiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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