Coritiba 3-1 Ceara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 19 Sep 2024

📅19/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
24%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.78
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.21
6+ Goals
9%
20.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 35% vs market 30.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
44%
+2.8pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.5pp
24%
Away Win
28%
-4.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.8pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Coritiba EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceara EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.36/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.29
-2% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -14%
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
295 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 80%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
21.5 Crosses 18.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Coritiba
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Ceara
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.97 xG 1.16
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
342 Passes 317
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.06.2024 Ceara Ceara 1-0 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
29.09.2022 Coritiba Coritiba 1-0 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
05.06.2022 Ceara Ceara 1-1 HT 1-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR1
21.02.2021 Coritiba Coritiba 0-2 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
25.10.2020 Ceara Ceara 2-1 HT 1-1 Coritiba Coritiba BR1
26.09.2011 Ceara Ceara 3-2 HT 2-1 Coritiba Coritiba BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Coritiba
3-1
AWAY Ceara
0.83 xG 0.77
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 0
342 Passes 275
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
9 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Coritiba vs Ceara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coritiba got the better of Ceara 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Coritiba as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Coritiba had 54% of the ball to Ceara's 46%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 0.83 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ceara led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Coritiba and 1.50 for Ceara.

What was the final score of Coritiba vs Ceara?

Coritiba 3-1 Ceara in the Brazil - Serie B on 19/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Coritiba vs Ceara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Coritiba win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Coritiba 47%, draw 29%, Ceara 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Coritiba) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Coritiba) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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