Pogon Siedlce 1-1 Arka Gdynia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.48
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
56%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.98
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.62
6+ Goals
11%
15.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
37%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
20%
+3.5pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.2pp
56%
Away Win
56%
-0.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.0pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Arka Gdynia EU Bookmakers 60%
-11% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
0.87/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/0.73
-11% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +42%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
266 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Siedlce
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Arka Gdynia
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 2.60
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2024 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 2-1 HT 2-0 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL1
06.09.2015 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-2 HT 0-0 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
25.07.2015 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 4-1 HT 1-1 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POLK
17.05.2015 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 4-4 HT 2-1 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
18.10.2014 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 1-0 HT 1-0 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Siedlce
1-1
AWAY Arka Gdynia
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pogon Siedlce vs Arka Gdynia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Siedlce and Arka Gdynia shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Arka Gdynia at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pogon Siedlce had 52% of the ball to Arka Gdynia's 48%, shots finished 9-10.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Arka Gdynia led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Pogon Siedlce and 2.60 for Arka Gdynia.

What was the final score of Pogon Siedlce vs Arka Gdynia?

Pogon Siedlce 1-1 Arka Gdynia in the Poland - 1st Division on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Siedlce vs Arka Gdynia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arka Gdynia win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Pogon Siedlce 23%, draw 21%, Arka Gdynia 56%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arka Gdynia) ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL1 More Poland - 1st Division
26 Apr 2025
16:00 Warta Poznan vs Kotwica Kolobrzeg Analysis →
18:30 Tychy 71 vs Polonia Warszawa Analysis →