South China 3-4 Sham Shui Po — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 26 Apr 2026

📅26/04/2026 · 🕒08:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.49
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
63%
-1.7pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.4pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+1.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.2pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South China EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Sham Shui Po EU Bookmakers 20%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
2.45/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/3.07
-3% / +79% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -24%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
378 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South China
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Sham Shui Po
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.11.2025 Sham Shui Po Sham Shui Po 1-0 HT 0-0 South China South China HK2
09.02.2025 Sham Shui Po Sham Shui Po 0-0 South China South China HK2
15.12.2024 South China South China 5-1 Sham Shui Po Sham Shui Po HK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME South China
3-4
AWAY Sham Shui Po
50% Ball Possession 50%
19 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH South China vs Sham Shui Po
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sham Shui Po edged past South China 4-3 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had South China at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, South China had 50% of the ball to Sham Shui Po's 50%, shots finished 19-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for South China and 0.67 for Sham Shui Po.

What was the final score of South China vs Sham Shui Po?

South China 3-4 Sham Shui Po in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 26/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South China vs Sham Shui Po?

Before kick-off our model rated a South China win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split South China 61%, draw 22%, Sham Shui Po 18%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (South China) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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