South Melbourne 4-2 Moreland City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.27
Draw
25%
5.28
Away
14%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.59
Over 2.5
50%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
25%
X/2
4%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
74%
-13.7pp
25%
Draw
16%
+8.9pp
14%
Away Win
10%
+4.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
35%
+15.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
65%
-15.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.2pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreland City EU Bookmakers 12%
+11% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
2.64/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/2.85
+2% / +67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -10%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 189 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.2 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Moreland City
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.02.2024 Moreland City Moreland City 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
20.05.2023 Moreland City Moreland City 0-2 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
16.02.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-1 HT 0-1 Moreland City Moreland City AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Moreland City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne beat Moreland City 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had South Melbourne as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, South Melbourne had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for South Melbourne and 0.33 for Moreland City.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Moreland City?

South Melbourne 4-2 Moreland City in the Australia - National Premier League on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Moreland City?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 61%, draw 25%, Moreland City 14%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (South Melbourne) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✗ BTTS No
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